The hottest polyester chip has entered a stable de

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Polyester chips have entered a period of stable development

polyester chips have entered a period of stable development

March 18, 2019

reviewing the market price trend of polyester chips in the past eight years, the polyester chip market generally presents a cost driven feature, basically following the market trend of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, showing a cost fluctuation market, and there is no obvious independent market. Main reasons: first, polyester chip production capacity is in a state of excess, but different kinds of polyester chip products have different degrees of excess; Second, the main product of polyester "side slice" factory is polyester filament, and "side slice" is only used as an intermediate to adjust the load, which is generally not paid enough attention to in business. Therefore, when the melt direct spinning products are close to the loss, the chip spinning has been at a loss, so we can only choose to reduce the load or stop production, resulting in a decline in the demand for chips. With a total investment of 18.46955 billion yuan, the market immediately showed that polyester chips subsidized chip spinning, making it competitive with melt direct spinning in cost. In addition, the fluctuation of polyester chip market price is also closely related to the change of industry supply and demand

Figure 1 polyester chip market price trend chart

data source: jinlianchuang

from 2012 to 2013, polyester production capacity continued to grow at a high speed, but the chip spinning investment in major domestic chip spinning production bases decreased significantly, and the new chip spinning capacity decreased sharply, restricting the growth of demand for polyester chips. Therefore, the new polyester chip production capacity decreased, but the "side cutting output" continued to grow, The overcapacity situation in the polyester chip market is still serious, leading to wide fluctuations in the polyester chip market price. After showing a deep "V" trend, it continues to fluctuate downward

The year of

has been a difficult two years for the polyester industry. Overcapacity has encountered sluggish demand. The average price of relevant products in the polyester market has hit a new low for five years. At the same time, production profits have fallen sharply and even lost money for a long time. Some poorly managed enterprises or backward production capacity have been eliminated. Affected by this, the market price of polyester chips has been declining all the way, and the loss situation is difficult to see in the end for a moment

from 2016 to 2018, the polyester chip market entered a new boom cycle, and the polyester chip market can usher in a sustained sharp rise every year. In, polyester factories were shut down several times for large-scale maintenance, market supply was controlled, and a large number of old polyester production capacity were shut down. The oversupply situation in the polyester market was alleviated, and the overall polyester market recovered. In 2016, the market price of polyester chips maintained a volatile upward trend, and in November, the polyester chip market ushered in * times of continuous sharp rise. At that time, peripheral bulk merchants such as ANSYS, LS DYNA) effectively predicted the generation and development of composite laminate damage under the low-speed impact. The collective rise of regular products, the rise of raw material PTA futures, the sharp rise in the focus of the spot market, and the sharp rise in the market for another raw material ethylene glycol, strong cost support, coupled with the release of downstream demand, the warmer upstream and downstream, jointly boosted the continuous rise in the market price of polyester chips. In 2017, faced with the implementation of the historically strict environmental protection policies, the orders of downstream weaving factories were generally advanced. In June 2017, downstream demand was released, driving the production and sales of polyester chip market higher, and driving the market price of polyester chip to continue to fluctuate and rise again. At the end of July 2018, PTA futures market for raw materials soared all the way, and the spot market price also broke through the five-and-a-half-year high. Subsequently, the strong return of upstream PX added a fire to PTA's cost. In addition, PTA's spot supply was in short supply, and the crazy speculation on the capital side jointly promoted PTA's soaring market. Driven by cost pressure, the market price of polyester chips has reached a high in the past six years, approaching the high price in 2012. However, the downward transfer of costs is not smooth. After mid October, the polyester chip market entered a long post surge repair period, drawing an embarrassing end to the new boom cycle of the market and introducing the concept of "sharing economy"

looking forward to 2019, the average processing difference of raw material PTA is expected to continue to rise in the transfer of upstream and downstream profits of the industrial chain, and the focus of PTA will continue to rise steadily, which will drive the whole industrial chain up to a certain extent, and the cost driving effect is ideal. However, there is no significant new production capacity in the polyester chip market. The increase in output in 2019 is still mainly from the side cutting output of polyester devices. In addition, the side cutting output is more adjustable, and the overall supply pressure of polyester chip factories is limited. In addition, at present, the number of new orders of downstream chip spinning enterprises mostly comes from colored silk and differentiated fibers. During the critical period of industrial upgrading in China's textile and clothing market, the demand of downstream emerging markets will maintain stable growth. It is expected that the overall fluctuation range of polyester chip market will narrow in 2019, and the market may enter a stable growth period

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